52 channels and nothing on? Soon you’ll have millions of channels and the traditional tv-channels will be in BIG trouble. I totally agree with what Eirik writes today:
When the internet really starts to shift the flow of money in the media industry we are up for some groundbreaking change…
I’m not sure that the flow of money needs to change before the groundbreaking change. Two things have happened the last days that gives a hint of the change to come:
Evidence #1: iTV
Apple does something very un-Apple: Talking about a product before you can actually buy it. The name will change, but it is a box that takes videos and music from your computer and plays them on your tv screen (and plays the sound on your tv or stereo). MacWorld explains:
Enter the iTV, which connects to your television and stereo and provides the remote-control-driven interface of Front Row without the keyboard-and-mouse issues of a full-fledged computer. Once it’s hooked up, the iTV connects to the network in your house and displays, right on your TV, a menu of options, all geared toward letting you play back digital content—stored on a computer in your house or somewhere out on the Internet—while sitting in your living room. That content includes movies, TV shows, and music downloaded from the iTunes store; other audio and video content you’ve loaded into iTunes; movie trailers from Apple.com; and perhaps other kinds of stuff that Apple hasn’t talked about yet.
So the videos don’t have to be stored on your computer. They can be streams from websites. And this is where your head is supposed to go “bing!!!”. This means that you’ll have thousands, maybe millions of channels available from day one. In no time there will be channels for every single interest, hobby, subject or event imaginable. The adult industry will of course be running ahead of all the others, but then you’ll have video streams with knitting, kittens, collecting stones, hybrid cars, wool socks and klingon language classes. And as always when the revolution comes: The ones who starts first will get the best seats. So which traditional tv-companies will get this first? And deliver their quality content via the web? Formatted for this kind of “television”? And compete? I’m not sure if they will understand it at all in the beginning. They’ll just notice that their younger audience is disappearing.
(TV by Horrortaxi)
There are reports that Apple and Google already are negotiating about putting Google Video on the iTV from day one. Which means that when you turn on the iTV in your living room, you’ll have everything on Google Video available on your tv-screen with a remote. Think about it.
Now think if everything on YouTube were in there too. And every video all your friends puts on their sites. Ok, some of them make really lame videos, but who cares: It’s your friends and you’ll be watching it for fun. And calling them, chatting with them online while watching it. Who needs tv?
Evidence #2: The Yahoo! Current Network
Today Yahoo! launched the The Yahoo! Current Network, four broadband video channels, called Buzz, Action, Driver and Traveler. It works like this: People (like you) submit videos you’ve made to Current, according to their guidelines. They put them up on their site, and viewers on the web vote. The ones who win are aired on tv (in the US) and on the braodband channels on Yahoo! If your video is aired, you get paid. Which of course will raise the quality bar a lot. Read more about how it works at the Current TV FAQ.
I call it a BIG HINT when a huge company like Yahoo! starts projects like this - and pay people to submit quality content.
I don’t think a happy amateur in Iceland will make something like Sopranos or LOST in his bedroom. But if YouTube already uses 5% of the bandwidth on the net, imagine what will happen when you can watch all these videos on your TV, relaxing in the sofa.
But it’s only crap?
Thomas Hawk has this comment in the above mentioned TechCrunch article:
People will not want to watch low quality non HDTV at $10-$15 a movie on their new $300 iDongle when you can get a Netflix subscription for the price of less than two movie downloads a month.
Nor will people want to watch low res crappy Google Video content on their new $4,000 plasma (on the video iPod, laptop, handheld device, PC, etc. yes. Just not on their plasmas).
Even with Google Video on the iDongle, it will still flop.
I think you’re wrong Thomas. At first you will be right, then you will be totally wrong. Who will watch low-quality videos of old men telling about their lives without even looking into the camera? Or young men dancing at student shows and famous locations? Millions. And millions. And every day new ones will find it. And everyday new content is uploaded.
In a few years quality will have improved a lot: Faster lines, bigger disks, better compression. I also think one of the reasons YouTube became so popular is because of the low quality: Everyone can watch the videos on their crap PCs. People will love watching the same stuff on their TVs. Play HD-quality games one second, watching pixelated crappy homemade videos the next.